While new post-Brexit trade deals are set play a key role in determining the future of UK beef imports, local consumer preferences and non-tariff barriers will also heavily influence who supplies beef to this lucrative market in 2021 and beyond, according to a new report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
And with the UK a high-value, albeit small, market for New Zealand beef – and free-trade negotiations between the two countries well advanced – NZ producers will be keeping close watch on developments for potential additional export opportunities, says report co-author Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate.
In its latest Beef Quarterly report, Rabobank says the UK represents a big, high-value market, and once outside the European bloc it is expected to become the fifth or sixth largest beef-importing country.
Mr Holgate said trade negotiations between the EU and UK were intensifying, with more rounds of negotiations being held through to 2nd October, 2020.
“It is difficult to predict the outcome of these negotiations at the present time. Both parties have stated a clear desire to conclude a deal during the transition period which ends on 31 December, but time is short, and there is a long list of issues to resolve,” he said.
Mr Holgate said the result of trade negotiations between the EU and UK would be particularly significant for Irish beef producers.
“Ireland is the major supplier of beef to the UK — representing 70 per cent of total UK beef imports in 2019 — and is currently one of a select number of major beef exporters to the EU-27 who are granted tariff-rate quotas which allow them to import certain quantities of beef at reduced or zero tariff rates,” he said.
“Once the Brexit transition finishes, these quotas will be divided between the EU and the UK, affording existing EU suppliers access to the UK at reduced tariff rates. If however, the EU and the UK fail to agree on future trade terms, it’s likely tariffs will remain high for most imported beef products and this would put Irish beef in a vulnerable position.”
Potential New Zealand opportunity
The report says the threat for Irish producers was further compounded by the UK government pursuing new trade deals with countries outside the EU, including New Zealand and Australia.
Rabobank New Zealand is a part of the global Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 120 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 40 countries, servicing the needs of about 10 million clients worldwide through a network of close to 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank New Zealand is one of the country's leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the New Zealand food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 32 offices throughout New Zealand.
Media contacts:
David Johnston
Media Relations Manager
Rabobank New Zealand
Phone: 04 819 2711 or 027 477 8153
Email: david.johnston@rabobank.com
Denise Shaw
Head of Media Relations
Rabobank Australia & New Zealand
Phone: +612 8115 2744 or +61 2 439 603 525
Email: denise.shaw@rabobank.com