Changed eating patterns, a shift towards in-home alcohol consumption and increasing demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers are among some of the top global trends in food and agri set to be felt in New Zealand in the next five years, according to a new series of podcasts from Rabobank.
In the podcast series – in which global strategists from the bank’s RaboResearch division examine the top trends “from farm to fork along the global supply chain for food and agriculture to 2030”– the global agribusiness banking specialist identifies a number of major macro factors set to impact right across the sector out to the end of the decade.
These include: changing trade dynamics due to potential tariffs and government policies, an ageing global population, rapid innovation and adoption of AI across the supply chain and a continuing focus on sustainability (with 2030 looming as the deadline for a number of policy and corporate climate targets).
In addition, a large number of other global trends are seen emerging in – or continuing to drive – specific parts of the food and agri supply chain, says podcast host, RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel.
General Manager RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand, Stefan Vogel
“These range from, at consumer level, the growing prevalence of people using anti-obesity medication in the US and some European and Asian countries – and the resulting changed diets that are impacting shopping baskets – through to, at farm level, the expected rapid growth in many regions of the use of ‘biologicals’, natural products that enhance crop growth,” he said.
Mr Vogel said the impacts of geopolitics and potential new trade tariffs were expected to be increasingly felt across the global food and agribusiness supply chain in the next five years.
“Under another Trump presidency, or ‘Trump 2.0’, for many exporters dealing with the US, but also China, the threatened US import tariffs and potentially arising trade wars are major concern on the way to 2030,” he said.
“Companies around the globe that are exporting to the US may need to consider strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including options like lowering prices to maintain competitiveness in the US market or investing in local production facilities in the United States to avoid tariffs altogether,” he said.
“However, the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and trade policies makes it challenging for companies to make long-term business decisions. On the positive side though, a strong US dollar might mitigate some of the tariff impacts.
“The food and agri sector around the world, including in New Zealand, is closely watching developments for New Zealand especially when it comes to beef, sheep meat and wine, as the US is a key destination for those products exported from New Zealand,” Mr Vogel said.
The Rabobank podcast series identified other factors at play, including:
• The use of so-called AOMs (anti-obesity medications) is already starting to have a discernible impact on the food industry in the US. And other countries – particularly in Europe and Asia – might follow suit. Users of these medications tend to consume fewer calories and choose to eat different foods, Mr Vogel said.
• On the beverage side, there is a notable global trend identified in the consumption of alcohol at home rather than in bars and restaurants. This has been largely driven by inflation and the higher cost of food and beverages outside the home, with consumers electing to ‘eat and drink in’ instead.
• An ageing global population is expected to drive demand for dairy products tailored to older consumers. As people age, they often seek out products that support their health and wellbeing, such as protein shakes and medical nutrition. This trend presents opportunities for the dairy industry to develop new products that cater to the needs of older consumers.
• At farm level, autonomous machinery and AI (artificial intelligence) are transforming farming operations around the world, and this trend is expected to continue at speed in the coming five years. Autonomous machinery – such as driverless helicopters and large drones for crop spraying, for example – is becoming more widespread, aided by AI.
• The on-farm usage of ‘biologicals’ is also expected to rise in the five years ahead. These natural products can enhance plant growth and health by improving nutrient uptake, pest resistance and soil health.
The RaboResearch Top 2030 Global Trends podcasts are available at RaboResearch Podcasts or search ‘RaboResearch’ in any major podcast app.